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The UEFA Champions League semi-finals are just around the corner, and supporters are in for a treat as four of Europe’s biggest clubs go head to head in a battle to leave Munich on May 31st with the famous big-eared trophy. Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, and Inter Milan are the four remaining teams, and each of them will feel that they have a very real chance at becoming European champions.
Online gambling sites can hardly split the semifinalists. The real money gambling at Bovada platform is one of the most popular in the betting game today, and they have three teams separated by just half a point heading into the first legs of the final-four clashes. They have Barcelona priced as the narrow 2/1 frontrunner, with Arsenal just behind them at 9/4, and PSG at 5/2. Inter, meanwhile, are a little further adrift at 9/2.
But how do those the gambling odds at Bovada match up with the statisticians over at Opta? The data company has become one of the biggest and most important football tools around, with legions of both supporters and club officials using the website to gather information on figures such as xG and much, much more. So, who do they think has the best chance of winning the Champions League, and does it match up with the betting odds?
Coming in as Opta’s favorites to be crowned European champions is Arsenal, with the website giving them a 32% chance of leaving the Allianz Arena with their first-ever Champions League crown. After their exploits in the Premier League over the last three years and on the continental stage this season, perhaps it’s clear to see why.
Both last season and the campaign before, the Gunners pushed the eventual champions all the way in the English title race. On both occasions, however, they finished as runners-up, and it looks like they will finish in the same place this season as well, albeit by a far bigger margin. They currently trail runaway league leaders Liverpool by a whopping 13 points with just five games remaining, a far cry from last season, when they took the title race down to the final day.
But this season, Arsenal’s best has been saved for Europe. They picked up a famous victory against Real Madrid in the quarterfinals, winning both home and away to secure a 5-1 aggregate victory against the reigning champions. Now, they stand on the brink of a first final appearance in 19 years and perhaps a maiden Champions League trophy.
WHAT A STRIKE BY RICE! 🎯
Arsenal take a 1-0 lead over Madrid 👀
pic.twitter.com/hCZi2yBadI https://t.co/Fh6ewQmLyS
— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) April 8, 2025
Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Inter Milan are listed as Opta’s second favorites, with the popular site giving them a 23% chance at victory. That percentage is a far cry from the betting odds, which price the Nerazzurri as a distant outsider.
Much of the pricing from the bookies could stem from the fact that the reigning Italian champions have a difficult task in the semifinals when they meet Barcelona. The Blaugrana have been an attacking powerhouse both domestically and on the continent this term, racking up a whopping 89 goals in La Liga and a further 37 in the Champions League. In Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal, and Raphinha, they have perhaps the most lethal strike force of all four teams remaining in the competition, but Simone Inzaghi’s men won’t be intimidated.
In Alessandro Bastoni, Inter have perhaps the best central defender in the world in their starting lineup. They conceded just one goal throughout the initial eight-game league phase, and they will fancy their chances of shutting out any team over two legs. Opta may well have recognized this, hence their decision to give the San Siro side a 23% shot at glory.
But right there with them are the aforementioned Barcelona, who also have a 23% chance of winning the title according to Opta. This basically means that for all their stats and metrics, they simply can’t pick a winner of the Inter-Barca semifinal, giving both sides a 50% chance at progression to the final.
If that worries the Blaugrana supporters the world over, just take a look at the betting odds for some solace. They still make you the 2/1 favorite to leave the Allianz Arena on May 31st with your first Champions League title in a decade, and on current form, that’s hard to argue with. However, another worrying thing for Barca supporters is what happened the last time these two teams met in a UCL semi-final.
Back in 2010, Jose Mourinho’s Inter rocked up to the Camp Nou to face Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona spearheaded by Lionel Messi at the peak of his powers. Even with the mercurial Argentinian starting, it wasn’t enough, and it was the Nerazzurri that upset the odds and progressed to the final. Could history repeat itself 15 years on?
Finally, we have PSG, with Opta giving them a 22% chance of lifting the title for the first time this season. That will come as somewhat of a surprise to many, as most analysts make the newly crowned Ligue 1 champions a narrow favorite to progress past Arsenal in the semifinals. The Parisians have already beaten two Premier League teams in Liverpool and Aston Villa, and now they will be looking to add the Gunners’ scalp to that illustrious list.